Travel restrictions resulted entering a business survival mode for aircraft operators as well as for aerodrome operators. Consequently have all not direct essential costs and investments been postponed or cancelled. As a result is runway safety become a non-priority subject.
We shifted our focus towards compliance: “ Do only what you are required to do and not what would be sensible for the medium term.”
An extensive analysis of the past 5 years runway events data is estimated to commence in January 2020. Interested parties are invited to contact us in order to consider tailor-made analysis.
2018 supersedes previous years in the costs of runway accidents and severe incidents
The downtrend has been broken by the 2018 costs. A record of close to 8 Billion $ on costs is estimated for 2018.
Grass Engineered Material Safety System, GEMSS is a promising new product. It has an increased bearing capacity, increased water drainage and reduces the wild life. When installed alongside the runway wIll it reduce the risk of damage of aircraft veering of as wel as reduce the risk of a birdstrike. GEMSS produced by a consortium at a price enabling a cost effective approach to runway safety.
Figures over the first half year of 2018 indicate that it is the most expensive year since 2015. The trend of a decline in runway accidents cost since 2015 has been broken.The estimated average runway accident costs in 2018 are as high as $ 580 Million per month. That is 15% higher than the $ 500 Million per month in the previous years.
The 2018 costs resulting from runway veer-offs are the the highest (75 times higher than the total cost of runway incursions......).
Paper "Early cost analysis of runway safety events" is published in IJTTE journal volume 8 (3) June 2018.
ISSN 2217-544X (print)
ISSN 2217-5652 (online)
DOI 10.7708/2217-544X
http://ijtte.com/study/327/EARLY_COST_SAFETY_ANALYSIS_OF_RUNWAY_EVENTS.html
The costs associated with runway safety events are in the first two months of 2018 considerably above the three years jan-feb monthly averages.
The costs associated with runway safety events are estimated at $ 5.252.328.894 ( 5.25 Billion dollar). The costs are corrected for local purchasing power and show a reducing trend.
Overview of total costs, corrected for local purchasing power, of accidents and incidents on the runway and its direct environment.
Operators should achieve a low as reasonably practicable level of runway safety. That is achieved when further mitigations are either impracticable or grossly outweighed by the cost. This requires a prediction of future costs related to accidents or incidents at or near a runway and thus an estimation of the likelihood and the associated costs of occurrences. As a consequence allows that evaluating of the most cost-beneficial mitigations. If the mitigation costs grossly outweigh the likely future accident costs, than the risk is acceptable.
The ten most expensive runway accidents for each individual month are provided. These costs include all types of runway occurrences, such as runway incursions, excursions and on runway events involving motorised fixed wing aircraft. Data are gathered from available open sources, are analysed and the associated total costs are estimated via the the runway cost estimating model.
Details can be requested via: info@safe-runway.com
JANUARY 2017 RUNWAY ACCIDENT COSTS
FEBRUARY 2017 RUNWAY ACCIDENT COSTS
MARCH 2017 RUNWAY ACCIDENT COSTS
APRIL 2017 RUNWAY ACCIDENT COSTS
MAY 2017 RUNWAY ACCIDENT COSTS
JUNE 2017 RUNWAY ACCIDENT COSTS
JULY 2017 RUNWAY ACCIDENT COSTS
AUGUST 2017 RUNWAY ACCIDENT COSTS
November 2017
In May 2017 are 91 aircraft damaged, 19 people inured and 8 fatalities related to runway accidents These are the highest numbers in 2017 till so far. The May 2017costs, corrected for purchasing power, are estimated just over 305 Million Dollars. General aviation accounted for 61 damaged aircraft, 14 injuries and 3 casualties.
Cost distribution per type of events shows a shift towards runway veer-offs
The associated costs of runway accidents / incidents have been corrected with the purchasing power in the various regions. This provides a more detailed insight in the actual costs, although local variations might still occur.
The initial figures were all based on the USA standard of living. These have now be corrected for te average purchasing power in the regions: Canada, USA, Middle America, Caribean, South America, Europe North, Europe South, Africa North, Africa West, Africa Central, Africa South, Middle East, Russia, China, Australia, South Asia, Indonesia e.o. Japan and Pacific.
As a result the total world wide estimated runway related accident costs decreased from 6 Billion $ to 4 Billion $. The cost distribution changed marginally.
Safe runway attends ICAO working group Aircraft Arresting Systems Working Group meeting in Madrid. Presentation is available at our website.
A cost-beneift analysis of runway accidents and mitigations has been presented at the Future Sky Safety conference, Eurocontrol, Brussels 8-9 March 2017.
The conclusion is that the Silo structure of civil aviation prevents cost effective mitigations for runway related accidents. It is strongly recommended to accept a policy of "follow the money", meaning: Prioritise mitigations in order of a cost-benefit approach. That means Veer-offs, Overruns and occurrences at regional aerodromes.
The different interpretation of runway safety related issues by the individual CAA's is contra productive to cost effective solutions.
Rob van Eekeren is requested to chair the modern Africa conference, Nairobi, Kenya, 18-20 Januari 2017.
An one year old Airbus 321 overran runway 24 at Kalingrad (UMKK) coming to rest in a snow bank. The nose gear collapsed. The total costs, including opportunity, damage and indirect safety cost are estimated at $ 80 Million.
Interfax reports that a criminal case has been opened.
More information can be found here.
